Key Takeaways

  1. Artillery was King: Over 60% of WWI casualties came from artillery. It was the dominant weapon of the war.
  2. The Registration Problem: Pre-war artillery required "registration"—test shots that revealed your attack was coming. Surprise was impossible.
  3. The Solution: "Predicted fire" used math to eliminate registration. You could hit targets without warning.
  4. Sound and Flash: New technologies located enemy guns by their sound and muzzle flash, enabling counter-battery fire that silenced the opposition.
  5. The Creeping Barrage: Precisely timed artillery support let infantry advance behind a wall of explosions—the tactical innovation that broke the stalemate.

The Forgotten Revolution

When we think of World War I technology, we think of tanks, aircraft, and poison gas. The dramatic. The novel. The photogenic.

But the technology that actually dominated the battlefield was artillery. And the revolution in how artillery was used was what ultimately broke the trench stalemate.

60%+

Of WWI casualties from artillery

More than all other weapons combined

This revolution was invisible. It involved mathematics, meteorology, surveying, and acoustic physics. It was conducted by men with slide rules rather than men with rifles. It made for terrible propaganda.

But it won the war.

The Registration Problem

To understand the artillery revolution, you must understand why artillery didn’t work in 1915.

Pre-war artillery doctrine assumed registration. Before an attack, guns would fire ranging shots at their targets, adjusting aim until shells landed where intended. Observers would watch through binoculars and report corrections.

This worked brilliantly—until it didn’t.

The problem: Registration required daylight. It took hours. It was obvious. The enemy could see exactly where you planned to attack.

By 1915, registration before an offensive had become standard. Which meant surprise was impossible.

Days

Duration of pre-attack bombardments by 1916

Eliminating any chance of surprise

At the Somme, the British bombarded German positions for seven days before attacking. Every German soldier knew exactly when and where the assault would come. They sheltered in deep dugouts, emerged when the shelling stopped, and mowed down advancing infantry.

The guns were accurate. The tactics were suicidal.

The Science of Predicted Fire

The solution was predicted fire—calculating where shells would land mathematically, without test shots.

This was harder than it sounds.

A shell’s trajectory depends on:

  • Muzzle velocity (how fast the shell leaves the barrel)
  • Barrel wear (worn barrels shoot slower)
  • Air temperature (hot air = less drag = shells go further)
  • Air pressure (low pressure = shells go further)
  • Wind speed and direction (at multiple altitudes)
  • Humidity (affects air density)
  • Propellant temperature (cold propellant burns slower)
  • Rotation of the Earth (yes, really—for long-range fire)
10+

Variables affecting shell trajectory

Each requiring measurement and calculation

Pre-war gunners ignored most of these. They assumed conditions were “standard” and corrected through registration.

The predicted fire revolution measured everything.

Barrel wear: Every gun was calibrated regularly. Each shell’s muzzle velocity was calculated from the gun’s firing history.

Meteorology: Weather balloons measured temperature, pressure, wind, and humidity at multiple altitudes. Corrections were transmitted to batteries hourly.

Survey: Precise mapping placed every gun and target on a coordinate grid. No more “aim at the big tree”—everything was trigonometry.

Ballistic tables: New tables calculated trajectories for every combination of conditions. Gunners became applied mathematicians.

1917

Year predicted fire became standard

After years of development

The Counter-Battery Revolution

Hitting fixed targets was one problem. Finding and destroying enemy guns was another.

Enemy artillery was the deadliest threat on the battlefield. Silencing it—counter-battery fire—was critical. But guns were hidden, camouflaged, and constantly moved.

Two technologies solved this:

Sound Ranging

A gun firing creates a sound wave. Multiple microphones, precisely positioned, pick up the sound at slightly different times. The differences reveal the gun’s location through triangulation.

British sound ranging units could locate a battery to within 25 meters after it fired three rounds.

25 meters

Sound ranging accuracy

Enough to destroy a battery

The technology was sophisticated. Microphones had to filter out other sounds—shells in flight, explosions, rifles. The calculations required specialized equipment. The operators needed training and experience.

But it worked.

Flash Spotting

A gun firing also creates a visible flash. Observers with precision instruments recorded bearing and elevation. Multiple observations from different positions triangulated the location.

Flash spotting was simpler than sound ranging but required clear sightlines to the enemy guns. It worked best at dawn and dusk when flashes were visible but observation was still possible.

2 Methods

For locating enemy guns

Sound ranging + flash spotting

Together, these technologies transformed counter-battery fire from guesswork to science.

By 1918, British artillery could locate and destroy German batteries almost as fast as they could be deployed. German gunners learned to fire sparingly—every shot risked annihilation.

The Creeping Barrage

Predicted fire enabled another revolution: the creeping barrage.

The concept was simple. Artillery fire would land just ahead of advancing infantry—close enough to suppress defenders, far enough ahead not to kill your own men. As infantry advanced, the barrage would “creep” forward at a pre-planned rate.

50-100 yards

Distance between barrage and infantry

Terrifyingly close—but effective

The execution was complex. Every gun had to fire precisely timed shots that landed in exact locations. The barrage had to move at infantry pace—typically 100 yards every 3-4 minutes. Timing had to be synchronized across dozens of batteries.

Before predicted fire, this was impossible. You couldn’t coordinate hundreds of guns hitting precise locations at precise times if each gun needed to register separately.

With predicted fire, you could plan the entire barrage mathematically. Every gun knew exactly when to fire and where shells would land. Adjustments happened on paper, not in the field.

100+ Guns

Coordinated in a single barrage

All firing on mathematical predictions

The creeping barrage forced defenders into an impossible choice:

  • Stay in trenches and be killed by the barrage
  • Flee to rear positions and be killed by advancing infantry
  • Try to fight and face both

When it worked, infantry could advance behind a curtain of explosions that destroyed everything in its path.

The Learning Process

None of this happened overnight.

The timeline of the artillery revolution shows how slowly military organizations learn:

YearDevelopment
1914War begins with pre-registration doctrine
1915First experiments with predicted fire; inconsistent results
1916Sound ranging units deployed; predicted fire improves
1917Systematic meteorological service established; creeping barrages standardized
1918Full predicted fire capability; counter-battery dominant

Four years. Millions of casualties. Gradual improvement.

4 Years

To fully develop predicted fire

An entire war of learning

The learning required:

  • Institutional change: Artillery had to reorganize around new technologies
  • Training: Gunners became technicians, not just soldiers
  • Equipment: New instruments, communication systems, calculation aids
  • Doctrine: Manuals rewritten, tactics revised, coordination improved

Every step faced resistance. Career artillerymen didn’t want to become mathematicians. Traditional officers distrusted “scientific” approaches. The old ways had worked before—why change?

The answer was: because the old ways no longer worked. But proving that took years.

Cambrai and Amiens

Two battles demonstrate the artillery revolution:

Cambrai (November 1917)

The first large-scale use of predicted fire without registration.

Before dawn on November 20:

  • 1,000+ guns opened fire simultaneously
  • No prior registration—complete surprise
  • Counter-battery fire silenced German artillery
  • Creeping barrage led infantry forward
  • Tanks provided mobile firepower

Result: Six-mile advance on the first day. The deepest single-day penetration of the war to that point.

The advance eventually stalled due to other failures (tanks broke down, reserves were mispositioned, German counterattacks succeeded). But the artillery had worked perfectly.

6 Miles

Advance on Day 1 at Cambrai

Artillery surprise in action

Amiens (August 1918)

The full system in action.

Before dawn on August 8:

  • 2,000+ guns opened fire on predicted targets
  • Counter-battery neutralized German artillery
  • Creeping barrage led infantry and tanks forward
  • Smoke screens concealed the advance
  • Aircraft attacked command posts and reinforcements

Result: Eight-mile advance. German General Ludendorff called it “the black day of the German Army.”

8 Miles

Advance on Day 1 at Amiens

The perfected system

The Hundred Days offensive that followed used the same methods, repeatedly. Predicted fire. Counter-battery. Creeping barrage. Advance.

The Germans had no answer.

Why Artillery Was Ignored

Despite its dominance, artillery got little credit for victory.

Several factors contributed:

Visibility: Tanks were new and dramatic. Guns were old and boring. Newspapers wanted images of wonder weapons, not calculations.

Complexity: The artillery revolution was technical and gradual. There was no single invention to celebrate—just accumulated improvements in a dozen disciplines.

Casualties: Artillery killed more people than it saved. Celebrating it felt unseemly.

Competing narratives: Politicians wanted to credit leadership. Generals wanted to credit tactics. No one wanted to credit mathematics.

Unglamorous

The defining characteristic

Why artillery was forgotten

The result was a century of misremembering. World War I became “the war of tanks and aircraft” when it was really the war of guns.

The Lessons

What does the artillery revolution teach us?

1. Boring Technologies Win

The technologies that matter most are often the least exciting. Artillery wasn’t new. Sound ranging wasn’t dramatic. But they won the war.

In business, the equivalent might be supply chain optimization, database management, or process improvement. Not exciting—but decisive.

2. Revolution Takes Time

Predicted fire took four years to develop fully. That’s longer than most people’s patience. Organizations that expect instant transformation from new technology will be disappointed.

3. Integration Beats Innovation

The artillery revolution wasn’t about inventing new guns. It was about integrating existing technologies—meteorology, survey, acoustics, mathematics—into a coherent system.

Most breakthroughs come from combining existing elements, not creating new ones.

4. Specialists Matter

The men who won the artillery war were surveyors, meteorologists, and mathematicians—not traditional soldiers. Finding and empowering the right specialists was as important as any tactical decision.

5. Credit Goes to the Visible

Tanks got the glory. Artillery got the results. This is universal: visible contributions are overvalued, invisible ones undervalued.

Invisible

Where the real work happens

But visible work gets the credit

Conclusion

The artillery revolution of World War I is one of history’s most significant military developments. It transformed warfare from attrition to maneuver. It broke a stalemate that had lasted years. It killed millions and saved millions more.

And almost no one remembers it.

Tanks and aircraft were the future—or so the interwar theorists claimed. Artillery was the past. The lessons of 1917-1918 were forgotten, to be painfully relearned in the next war.

But for those four years, artillery was king. And the scientists who made it work—the sound rangers, flash spotters, and ballistic calculators—were the unsung heroes of the war.


This post is part of the WWI Technology series, exploring how the Great War forced military institutions to adapt—or die.