The Uninsurable Future: Climate Risk and the Collapse of Property Insurance

Key Insights

Climate change is driving increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, leading to higher insurance claims and premiums.
Many insurers are withdrawing from high-risk markets, resulting in widespread nonrenewals and leaving homeowners without coverage.
The rising cost of insurance disproportionately affects low-income and marginalized communities, exacerbating social inequalities.
Innovative policy solutions, such as public-private partnerships and risk-sharing mechanisms, are needed to address the insurance crisis.
Long-term resilience requires integrating climate risk into urban planning, building codes, and community preparedness efforts.

References

Here are the combined references formatted as a numbered APA list.

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California Department of Insurance. (2022, March). FACT SHEET: Insurance policy count data 2015-2021. https://www.insurance.ca.gov
Climate Cabinet Education. (2025). Insurers of last resort: Why today’s FAIR Plans need a redesign to address the home insurance crisis. https://climatecabinet.org
Ge, S., Johnson, S., & Tzur-Ilan, N. (2025). Climate risk, insurance premiums, and the effects on mortgage and credit outcomes (Working Paper No. 2505). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/papers/2025/2505
Goudie, A. (2005). The human impact on the natural environment. Blackwell Publishing.
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Jones, D. (2025). The uninsurable future: The climate threat to property insurance, and how to stop it. Yale Law Journal, 135(7), 1782–1855.
J.P. Morgan. (2025). Insurance: Weathering the storm of inflation, climate change and market-distorting state regulation. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Scarborough, V. L. (2003). The flow of power: Ancient water systems and landscapes. School of American Research Press.
Smith, N. A. F. (1971). A history of dams. Peter Davies.
U.S. Senate Budget Committee. (2024). Next to fall: The climate-driven insurance crisis is here – and getting worse. https://www.budget.senate.gov
U.S. Senate Budget Committee. (2024). Next to fall: The climate-driven insurance crisis is here – and getting worse (Table 1: 100 counties with the highest non-renewal rate in 2023 and > 10,000 policies) [Supplemental data]. https://www.budget.senate.gov
Wilkinson, T. J. (2013). Hydraulic landscapes and irrigation systems of Vijayanagara. Cambridge University Press.

The Uninsurable Future – Part 1: Mapping the Climate-Driven Crisis Through Soaring Premiums and Nonrenewal Rates

The Uninsurable Future: Climate Risk and the Collapse of Property Insurance 1 The Uninsurable Future – Part 1: Mapping the Climate-Driven Crisis Through Soaring Premiums and Nonrenewal Rates 2 The Uninsurable Future – Part 2: Policy Paralysis: Deregulation, Debt, and the Failure of State Insurance Backstops 3 The Uninsurable Future – Part 3: The Systemic Threat: How Rising Home Insurance Costs Trigger a Mortgage and Credit Collapse ← Series Home The Canary in the Coal Mine Sings of Climate Risk Insurance stands as the “canary in the coal mine” for the broader climate crisis,. Historically, property and casualty insurance has served a crucial function by pooling risk, channeling capital, and preventing unexpected financial shocks for households and financial institutions. This is particularly vital in the U.S. mortgage market, where lenders routinely require insurance as a precondition for securing a loan,. ...

Two miniature housing development models—one coastal, one wildfire-prone—juxtaposed under cinematic, crisis-driven lighting.

The Uninsurable Future – Part 2: Policy Paralysis: Deregulation, Debt, and the Failure of State Insurance Backstops

The Uninsurable Future: Climate Risk and the Collapse of Property Insurance 1 The Uninsurable Future – Part 1: Mapping the Climate-Driven Crisis Through Soaring Premiums and Nonrenewal Rates 2 The Uninsurable Future – Part 2: Policy Paralysis: Deregulation, Debt, and the Failure of State Insurance Backstops 3 The Uninsurable Future – Part 3: The Systemic Threat: How Rising Home Insurance Costs Trigger a Mortgage and Credit Collapse ← Series Home The Stark Choice Between Deregulation and Debt Florida and California, two large, heavily populated states highly vulnerable to natural hazards, offer a stark comparison in policy response to the same climate-driven insurance crisis,. Florida, facing hurricane and flooding exposure, has aggressively deregulated its market, eliminating state rate control. Conversely, California, primarily battling wildfire risk, maintained rate regulation but eventually conceded massive rate hikes justified by catastrophe models,. ...

Metaphorical rendering of golden threads snapping between miniature houses and oversized credit cards, symbolizing economic system failure.

The Uninsurable Future – Part 3: The Systemic Threat: How Rising Home Insurance Costs Trigger a Mortgage and Credit Collapse

The Uninsurable Future: Climate Risk and the Collapse of Property Insurance 1 The Uninsurable Future – Part 1: Mapping the Climate-Driven Crisis Through Soaring Premiums and Nonrenewal Rates 2 The Uninsurable Future – Part 2: Policy Paralysis: Deregulation, Debt, and the Failure of State Insurance Backstops 3 The Uninsurable Future – Part 3: The Systemic Threat: How Rising Home Insurance Costs Trigger a Mortgage and Credit Collapse ← Series Home The Price of Climate Risk Comes Due Rising home insurance costs, driven by climate change, serve as a direct financial channel through which climate risk strains household budgets,. Insurance is indispensable to the U.S. housing market, as mortgage lenders universally require homeowners insurance coverage,. Consequently, a surge in premiums acts as a sudden, often unmanageable, liquidity shock to the household,. ...

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