Experimentation

The Abductive Advantage ← Series Home The failure of Blockbuster illustrated how traditional, deductive strategy—focused on analyzing backward-looking historical data—cannot withstand rapid environmental change. The modern imperative is to adopt Design Thinking for Strategy (DTS), which relies on abductive reasoning, starting with deep customer observation (as discussed in Post 01) and iteratively refining solutions. Once the crucial insights and knowledge have been gathered in the initial phases (Observing and Learning), the strategy challenge shifts from understanding the present to designing the future. This shift demands moving concepts off the abstract whiteboard and transforming them into tangible, testable models. ...

The Bounded Mind ← Series Home The High Price of Untested Belief Managers commonly rely on intuition and experience-based insights, often leading them to apply solutions to problems they have yet to fully understand. This default managerial style is often characterized by the plunging-in bias: rushing forward with a solution long before gathering data, finding alternatives, or engaging in analysis. Conversely, some highly analytical managers find themselves paralyzed, agonizing over multiple alternatives and over-analyzing a problem until the moment for effective action has passed. Both extremes—the impetuous and the overly cautious—share a common vulnerability: making decisions based on untested, unvalidated assumptions. ...

The Abductive Advantage ← Series Home In the realm of strategy, Design Thinking begins with deep observation (the foundation of the Netflix success story, as discussed in Post 01) and moves through intensive prototyping (turning ideas into concrete blueprints, as detailed in Post 02). Yet, the act of designing a magnificent new Detailed Business Model (DBM) is only half the battle. A strategy built on abstract creativity alone is merely a hypothesis, floating precariously above the solid ground of market reality. ...