The Unfolding Story of Interdependence
Globalization is visible in the colossal cargo ships navigating oceans and the seamless flow of data across continents,. It manifests as the growing interdependence of economies, cultures, and populations, achieved through cross-border trade, technology, and flows of people. However, the notion that globalization is a recent, irresistible force of nature is a misconception; it is, in fact, a human construct whose history is marked by advances, reversals, and technical contingency.
This pervasive phenomenon is fundamentally dependent on energy conversions and transportation advances that enable the mass movement of goods, people, and information,. Tracing the history of its technical enablers illuminates how globalization’s extent has always been tied to mechanical capabilities and prevailing political conditions.
Contingency, Scale, and the Power of the Engine
From Sail to Steam
The earliest, or incipient, wave of globalization was constrained by the limits of animate power and slow transport. Long-distance voyages relied on wooden sailing ships that were small, slow (Dutch voyages to Batavia averaged 4.7 kilometers per hour), and constrained to high-value cargo,.
The first great quantitative leap came with the combination of reliable navigation (Harrison’s chronometer) and the steam engine,. The adoption of steel hulls, screw propulsion, and more efficient steam engines allowed reliable speeds of 30 to 40 km/hour, surpassing the fastest clippers. Simultaneously, the telegraph provided the first nearly instant means of global communication, allowing trade decisions to react swiftly to price differences across continents.
Diesel, Jets, and Microchips
The post-1950 globalization surge was powered by a convergence of advanced technologies. Diesel engines provided superior efficiency and reliability for shipping, capable of handling vast bulk cargoes like oil. Crude oil tankers grew dramatically, with Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) exceeding 180,000 deadweight tons by the mid-1960s.
Aviation was revolutionized by the jet engine, leading to the Boeing 747—the first wide-body jetliner—which, using turbofan technology, changed intercontinental travel and commerce, particularly for high-value goods,. Parallel progress in electronics, culminating in the microprocessor (Intel 4004 in 1971), provided the critical infrastructure for processing the vast, interconnected data flows necessary to coordinate global supply chains,.
China and the Peak of Interdependence
The most dramatic phase of globalization followed the political transformations of the late 20th century, particularly China’s return to international commerce in the 1980s,. The total volume of global trade, in constant monies, increased sixfold between 1973 and 2008. Container ship capacity also expanded dramatically, with maximum vessel capacity increasing 12-fold between 1973 and 2019.
However, this relentless growth stalled. By the mid-2000s, this phase reached a turning point, exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis. The movement of manufacturing to Asia, particularly China, led to the loss of millions of well-paying jobs in the West, fueling anti-globalization sentiment and geopolitical tension.
The Unsettled Trajectory
The high degree of globalization achieved is not irreversible, and history reminds us of previous substantial retreats, such as the period between 1913 and 1945. Today, the trend toward reshoring and de-risking supply chains is growing, driven by concerns over security and unexpected disruptions, highlighted by events like the severe shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite this momentum, instant reversal is impossible, as too many countries rely on specialized production and material imports. Nonetheless, prominent organizations are now openly calling for shorter, more resilient, and less fragmented value chains. The evidence points toward a significant slowing or potential ebb in globalization, suggesting that we may have seen its peak. The continuation of global interconnection will depend on far-from-foreclosed choices regarding economic, security, and political stability.