The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution

Key Takeaways

Efficiency First: Electromobility and heat pumps deliver step-change reductions in final energy.
Local Limits: The Reduced Technical Potential defines the physical ceiling of self-sufficiency.
Hydrogen’s Role: Green hydrogen is mandatory bulk storage to close intermittency gaps.
Arithmetic Over Adjectives: Viable plans are built on numbers, not slogans.

References

Jacobson, M. Z., Delucchi, M. A., Bazouin, G., Bauer, Z. A., Heavey, C. C., Fisher, E., Morris, S. B., Piekutowski, D. J. Y., Vencill, T. A., & Yeskoo, T. W. (2015). 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight all-sector energy roadmaps for 139 countries of the world. Joule, 1(1), 108–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.07.005.
Lund, H., Østergaard, P. A., Connolly, D., & Mathiesen, B. V. (2017). Smart energy and smart energy systems. Energy, 137, 556–565. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.123.
Schmidt, O., Hawkes, A., Gambhir, A., & Staffell, I. (2017). Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 42(52), 30470–30492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2017.10.045.

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 9: A Plan That Adds Up: The Arithmetic of Decarburization for Industrialized Economies

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home The Challenge Recapitulated Over this series, we have examined Austria’s energy system in detail. Let us summarize the key findings: Current state: Total primary energy: 1,381 PJ (~384 TWh) Fossil fuel share: 63% CO₂ emissions: ~70 Mt/year (energy-related) Current renewable electricity: ~70 TWh Target state: Fossil fuel share: 0% CO₂ emissions: Near zero Required clean electricity: ~166 TWh ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 1: The Power of Proof: Why Energy Debates Need Less Emotion and More Arithmetic

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home The Role of Science in the Energy Debate If we were guided by science, there would be a lot less hot air and more informed debate around energy. Nothing in society is possible without the availability of sufficient energy. Nothing. Energy is a fundamental prerequisite of life and represents a particularly important factor of everyday life. ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 8: The Gigawatt Gambit: Managing Fluctuations, Storage, and the Electric Vehicle Fleet

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home The Integration Challenge Previous installments established that Austria could, in principle, generate 165 TWh of renewable electricity annually—enough for full decarbonization. But generating enough energy on average is not the same as having enough energy at every moment. The fundamental challenge of high-renewable systems is temporal mismatch: supply and demand rarely align perfectly, and the gap must be bridged by storage, demand flexibility, or interconnections. ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 7: Beyond Fossil Fuels: The Calculus of Nuclear Fission, Fusion, and 'Clean' Coal

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home The Non-Renewable Options So far, this series has focused on renewable energy: hydro, wind, and solar. But a complete assessment of decarbonization pathways must also consider non-renewable low-carbon sources: Nuclear fission: Mature technology, controversial politics Nuclear fusion: The eternal promise, now perhaps closer Carbon capture and storage (CCS): Making fossil fuels “clean” Hydrogen from fossil sources: Currently the dominant production method ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 6: Sunshine Squared: Scaling Solar Power from Rooftops to Deserts

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home Solar PV: From Niche to Mainstream Photovoltaic technology has undergone a remarkable transformation. Costs have fallen by over 90% since 2010, making solar the cheapest source of new electricity generation in most of the world. In Austria, solar PV represents the largest untapped renewable resource—estimated at 57 TWh/year RTP versus current generation of only 5 TWh/year. That means we are currently exploiting only 8.8% of our solar potential. ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 5: The Physical Ceiling: Assessing the Limits of Local Renewable Resources

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home The Resource Question We’ve established that decarbonizing Austria requires roughly 166 TWh of carbon-free electricity. But how much renewable energy can Austria actually produce within its borders? This question requires careful analysis. There are many ways to define “potential”: Theoretical potential: How much energy is physically available (e.g., total solar radiation) Technical potential: What fraction can be captured with current technology Economic potential: What can be deployed cost-effectively Reduced Technical Potential (RTP): What can realistically be built given all constraints ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 4: Winning the Heat War: Insulating Our Way to Sustainable Warmth

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home The Thermal Sector: A Hidden Giant Heating and cooling buildings accounts for approximately 27.2% of final energy consumption in industrialized nations. In Austria, this amounts to roughly 300 PJ annually—most of it provided by natural gas, oil, and biomass. Unlike transport, where complete decarbonization requires entirely new vehicle technologies, the thermal sector can be addressed through a combination of demand reduction and efficiency improvement. ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 3: The Electric Drive: Calculating the Efficiency Revolution in Surface Transport

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home Transport: The Hard-to-Decarbonize Sector Transport accounts for about one-third of final energy consumption in most industrialized economies, and it remains overwhelmingly dependent on petroleum fuels. In Austria, the transport sector consumed 361 PJ in 2020—virtually all from oil-derived fuels. Decarbonizing transport is therefore essential to any serious climate strategy. But which technology pathway makes the most sense from a physics standpoint? ...

The Arithmetic of Decarburization - Part 2: The Red Truth: Quantifying the Hidden Energy Appetite of Affluent Life

The Arithmetic of Decarburization: A Hard Look at the Energy Revolution ← Series Home The Baseline: Human Energy Needs Before examining modern energy consumption, we should consider the baseline: how much energy does a human body actually need? The answer is approximately 7 MJ per day (about 2,000 kcal), assuming moderate activity. This represents the absolute minimum energy throughput required for human survival. ...

Key Takeaways#

References#

Key Takeaways

References