The Arithmetic of Sustainability

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home The current discourse surrounding sustainable energy is frequently dominated by “twaddle.” Everyone agrees that transitioning away from fossil fuels is crucial, and individuals are encouraged to “make a difference,” yet many of the actions and proposals suggested simply don’t add up when scrutinized numerically. This high level of “twaddle emissions” arises because public debate often becomes emotional—concerning wind farms or nuclear power, for example—and people rarely discuss concrete numbers. If numbers are mentioned, they’re often cherry-picked to create an impression, sound impressive, or score points in arguments, rather than genuinely contributing to thoughtful discussion. ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home The initial step in tackling the formidable challenge of moving away from fossil fuels is to calculate precisely the sheer scale of the problem: determining the total energy we consume. The current sustainable energy discourse is often mired in emotion and “twaddle,” obscuring the fundamental numerical challenge ahead. To create viable strategies rather than “pipedreams,” we must quantify our energy use—the “red stack”—and compare it directly against potential sustainable production—the “green stack.” ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home The vast appetite of affluent societies, quantified as the “red stack” of consumption—approximately 125 kWh per day per person in Britain—is overwhelmingly fueled by transport and heating. For the typical car driver, road transport alone consumes about 40 kWh per day. Successfully migrating away from fossil fuels and achieving the drastic emissions reductions required (potentially greater than 85% for Britain) demands a fundamental, numerically sound strategy for tackling this consumption pillar. ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home The arithmetic of sustainable energy necessitates tackling consumption first. In Britain, total consumption stands at approximately 125 kWh per day per person. We have already established that electrification can radically reduce the energy consumed by surface transport, transforming the 40 kWh/d fossil fuel burden into a much smaller electrical demand. The next formidable challenge—the second largest of the “three biggest fish” in our consumption picture—is heating. ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home Having quantified the “red stack” of consumption and defined a necessary reduction strategy for transport and heating, we know that the future sustainable society requires meeting an electrical demand of 48 kWh/d per person (120 GW nationally), representing nearly a tripling of current UK delivered electricity consumption. If this plan is to be technically feasible and not a “pipedream,” we must now rigorously calculate the production side—the “green stack”—to determine how much energy Britain can realistically generate from its own renewable resources. ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home The first phase of our arithmetic journey confirmed the staggering challenge: affluent Britain currently demands 125 kWh/d per person of primary energy input. Our strategic shift to sustainability requires aggressively reducing this demand through efficiency measures—electrifying transport and heating—resulting in a monumental reliance on clean delivered electricity: 48 kWh/d per person (120 GW nationally), nearly a tripling of current consumption. ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home Our journey through the arithmetic of sustainable energy has established an enormous deficit. Britain’s future electrified lifestyle demands 48 kWh/d per person of clean electricity (120 GW nationally). Domestic renewable resources max out at approximately 18 kWh/d per person due to a “social ceiling” imposed by land-use constraints. Solar imports offer a potential 20 kWh/d per person, but this introduces major geopolitical dependencies. ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home The preceding analysis has established the contours of a sustainable energy supply for Britain: a mix of indigenous renewables (wind, tide, solar thermal), imported solar power, and dense nuclear fission. However, the arithmetic of generation is only half the challenge. Electricity from fluctuating sources (wind, solar) does not always match the moment-to-moment demand of consumers and industry. ...

The Arithmetic of Sustainability ← Series Home Throughout this series, we have performed the arithmetic of energy: quantifying Britain’s current consumption, projecting the demand of an electrified future, assessing the realistic contributions of indigenous renewables, evaluating imports, and examining storage. The numbers are clear, if sobering. The challenge is defined: deliver 48 kWh/d per person of clean electricity (120 GW nationally) to power an efficient, electrified lifestyle, replacing the current ~125 kWh/d/p of primary energy consumption. ...