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Policy Analysis

Free Trade: Fact or Fiction?: Part 7 – Mission Impossible?

This post examines the macroeconomic policy prescriptions applied to developing countries through IMF conditionality, evaluating the empirical relationship between inflation, interest rates, fiscal policy, and economic growth across the historical record. It draws on the cases of Brazil, South Korea, South Africa, and Argentina to assess whether the standard orthodoxy of very low inflation and balanced budgets produces the outcomes its proponents claim.

Free Trade: Fact or Fiction?: Part 6 – Windows 98 in 1997

This post examines the history and current architecture of the international intellectual property rights system, tracing its evolution from the first patent law in 15th-century Venice through the 1994 TRIPS agreement. It asks whether the current system reflects a principle of rewarding innovation or a mechanism for managing competition between nations at different stages of technological development.

Free Trade: Fact or Fiction?: Part 5 – Man Exploits Man

This post examines the institutional economics of state-owned enterprises, interrogating both the theoretical case against public ownership and the empirical record of actual SOE performance across Asia, Latin America, and Europe. It asks whether the dominant policy prescription — privatize — reflects the evidence or the ideology.

Free Trade: Fact or Fiction?: Part 4 – The Finn and the Elephant

This post examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic development, asking whether the unconditional welcome recommended to developing countries by international institutions reflects the historical practices of today's wealthiest nations. It draws on the cases of Finland, Japan, Korea, the United States, Singapore, and Ireland to evaluate what conditions determine whether FDI accelerates or constrains long-run development.

Free Trade: Fact or Fiction?: Part 3 – My Six-Year-Old Son Should Get a Job

This post examines the theoretical and empirical foundations of free trade as a development strategy, focusing on the gap between the theory's assumptions and the observable conditions of developing country economies. It draws on case studies from Mexico, Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe, and Korea to assess whether rapid trade liberalization produces the outcomes its advocates predict. The argument about capability versus incentive is the analytical core.