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The Tyrant's Blueprint: A Mathematical Forensic of Tyranny

Key Insights
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  • Tyranny emerges when personal propensity, institutional opportunity, and coalition viability exceed a critical threshold, making it a predictable systemic event rather than a moral failing.
  • Absolute power creates feedback loops that corrupt leaders psychologically and erode institutions, leading to inevitable regime collapse upon the leader’s death.
  • Coalition viability is the most fragile variable, maintained through repression and spoils, but susceptible to cascading failures during crises.
  • Tyranny exists on a spectrum of severity, with balanced regimes achieving the highest stability and deadliest outcomes.
  • Preventing tyranny requires engineering institutional resilience and screening high-risk leaders to keep the threshold unbreachable.

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